As Riyadh prepares to host US-Ukraine talks on easy methods to finish Russia’s battle, analysts inform Euronews how Saudi Arabia changed into a diplomatic heavyweight.
4 years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has established itself as an sudden however efficient mediator between the warring international locations.
Having lengthy been an Arab powerhouse because of its oil wealth, booming economic system, and political steadiness in a afflicted area, it’s rising as a big world diplomatic participant.
On Monday, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will welcome Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Riyadh, the place talks between officers from Washington and Kyiv will happen over a peace framework to finish the battle.
It’ll be the primary high-level assembly of america and Ukraine because the heated argument between Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump within the Oval Place of work previous this month.
Those talks come simply weeks after Riyadh hosted best US and Russian officers for his or her maximum intensive engagement since Russia began its battle in February 2022. As a part of the diplomatic thaw, Washington and Moscow agreed to paintings in combination to finish the battle.
So how has Saudi Arabia located itself as an influence dealer in world international relations?
Crude energy
Oil international relations provides a partial clarification. At the side of america and Russia, Saudi Arabia is without doubt one of the international’s dominant crude oil manufacturers.
Actually, Riyadh used to be at the leading edge of a up to date settlement via the 8 OPEC+ nations to begin expanding crude oil output from April 2025, a transfer that has contributed to costs falling this week — and fulfilled a request via Trump.
On 24 January, Trump informed the International Financial Discussion board in Davos that reducing oil costs may just deliver concerning the finish of battle in Ukraine, and mentioned he would ask Saudi Arabia and different OPEC international locations to do so.
“At the moment the cost is excessive sufficient that that battle will proceed,” Trump informed Davos. “You gotta deliver down the oil value and finish the battle.”
The contributors of OPEC+ are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
For the reason that Russia used to be a part of this resolution, it’s tricky to believe that Moscow expects the lower cost of oil to hurt its personal pursuits, mentioned Raffaele Marchetti, a professor of World Members of the family on the LUISS College of Rome.
“It is too simplistic to assume in time period of uncooked subject matter value as a leverage to weaken Russia,” he informed Euronews.
“We see an engagement amongst Saudi Arabia, Russia and america to discover a new international stability the use of a not unusual excellent (oil) in their unique circle with broader political targets”.
Large safety spender
Saudi Arabia has a central function within the Center East, from resolution making and post-war rebuilding in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the containment of Iran and its proxies.
Within the early 2000s, the Saudi monarchy were threatened and virtually destabilised via Islamic fundamentalist terrorism — led via Osama bin Encumbered — that culminated within the 11 September 2011 assaults at the Dual Towers in New York. Since then, Saudi Arabia has invested hugely in its safety insurance policies, and in projecting its emerging power externally.
In gentle of america invasion of Iraq, the failure of the Israel-Palestine peace procedure (earlier than 7 October 2023) and the damaging civil battle in Syria, Saudi Arabia’s stature has incessantly grown, and it’s the simplest energy within the area this is able to competing with Israel, Iran and Turkey.
“The worldwide evolution of the Arab International provoked an influence shift from Egypt, Syria and Iraq to the Gulf nations,” mentioned Yves Aubin de los angeles Messuzière, France’s former ambassador to Tunisia and knowledgeable at the wider area.
“Saudi Arabia has the entire energy elements like its financial weight, a longer territory, 30 million population, and the non secular management over the worldwide Sunni neighborhood.”
Riyadh introduced ultimate month that it might building up its defence spending to almost 75 billion euros this 12 months, up just about 3 billion euros on ultimate 12 months’s outlay.
This allocation places its army spending at 7.1% of GDP, and approach it is without doubt one of the best 5 nations each when it comes to relative and absolute expenditure on defence.
Lasting world popularity
Saudi Arabia’s longstanding balancing act that has noticed it increase and handle robust members of the family with other blocs from the GCC to BRICS, in addition to primary allies reminiscent of america, is the way it got here to play the function of mediator within the Russia-Ukraine battle.
“For any nation, being the host venue of significant world talks has implicit political added values, love it has been historically on the subject of Switzerland”, says Luigi Narbone, who used to be Ambassador, Head of the EU Delegation to Saudi Arabia, and non-resident EU Ambassador to Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
“We must now not underestimate this symbolic part (of Riyadh web hosting talks). It’s transparent that Saudi Arabia is searching for a definitive and lasting world popularity,” he informed Euronews.
Certainly, Saudi Arabia’s community of bilateral members of the family makes it an interesting selection with regards to world international relations, consistent with Michael Harris, an analyst from the Royal United Products and services Institute (RUSI) — a UK-based assume tank.
“They (america and Russia) met in Saudi Arabia as a result of what number of nations would really feel at ease to be the hosts for them?” he informed Euronews.
“Additionally, there’s a want for Trump to interact the Saudis anyway. And it is too early for any U.S. officers to be going to Russia. It is probably the similar when it comes to Russia going any place in Europe for america,” Harris added.
Saudi Arabia maintains a cordial courting with Russia regardless of its competition with Iran, and, on the similar time, is a beacon of steadiness in a fractured and crisis-stricken Center East.
The Palestinian query
Washington would love Riyadh to signal the so-called Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel. Trump’s most vital overseas coverage fulfillment from his first time period used to be web hosting the signing of a chain of normalisation agreements below the accords between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in September 2020.
But Saudi Arabia refuses to signal the Abraham Accords with out the introduction of a Palestinian state.
“Whilst younger Prince Mohammed bin Salman has in theory a realistic political way, the 89-year-old ruler King Salman Al Saud is terribly smart to the Palestinian reason, particularly for non secular causes,” mentioned de los angeles Messuzière.
What is extra, regardless of its authoritarian monarchic device, the Saudi regime is vigilant to any backlash or agitation from its electorate with regards to primary political selections.
“The Saudi inhabitants is most commonly younger and extremely delicate to the Palestinian query,” de los angeles Messuzière added.