What does Putin’s farcical ‘re-election’ mean for the EU?

Vladimir Putin now provides one other six years to his reign within the Kremlin after “profitable” a fraudulent election on 17 March with 88 % of the vote. 

Now he might really feel inclined to develop into much more aggressive in direction of Ukraine and the remainder of Europe. 

The dangers for the EU and its civilization at the moment are actually existential. If we rule out appeasement, a counter-offensive should now be developed.

Putin started his reign as president in 2000 with the ruthless suppression of Chechen separatists and the whole destruction of the Chechen capital Grozny, inflicting round 60,000 casualties — strategies he later employed on a a lot bigger scale in Syria. 

His assist to Syria has now overlapped with each his first aggressive acts in opposition to Ukraine in 2014, and his full-scale invasion of the nation that continues to rage on.

Putin’s regime has additionally famously engaged in political assassinations: Anna Politkovskaya, shot lifeless in 2006, Boris Nemtsov in 2015, and now Alexei Navalny, who died in a gulag on 16 February. 

And don’t overlook Yevgeny Prigozhin, former commander of the Wagner militia, who met a sticky finish in an unexplained aircraft crash after his tried coup in June 2023.

Creating chaos, wreaking havoc, and believing in nothing

Putin’s overriding obsession is to revive Russia as an incredible energy, primarily based on his historic mission to guide a Russian world that features Ukraine and Belarus as one folks. 

Externally he sees Russia as a crusader (alongside China) to overthrow the West’s world hegemony.

This yr, Putin might search some new model of the post-2014 Minsk agreements that had implicitly endorsed the then-territorial establishment, which left the door open for the 2022 invasion. 

Putin goals to take Odesa subsequent and the entire of the Ukrainian coast right down to Moldova, permitting him to re-establish Transnistria as an efficient Russian army base and overthrow Chișinău’s present pro-European management, thus ending Moldova’s EU membership bid.

In Europe, Putin will proceed making an attempt to undermine the EU, with disinformation and the cultivation of allies resembling Victor Orbán and numerous far-right events. 

If Trump is re-elected as US president, Putin will completely relish the prospect of him taking a wrecking ball to NATO (though Trump appears to be already back-peddling on this). 

Within the wider world, he’ll maintain working to construct anti-Western alliances (with China) and can search to deepen cooperation with India and the opposite BRIC states. On the lowest stage, his semi-private militias will assist any native African autocrat eager on booting out the West.

So with Putin in place for a minimum of one other six years, the EU has a selection between appeasement or growing a tangible counter-strategy. Rejecting appeasement outright, a counter-strategy ought to have three pillars.

It is time to play hardball

First, no extra Minsk agreements. France and Germany have seen their illusions shattered. 

The EU has for Ukraine impressively moved on with agreeing to open accession negotiations and its civilian €50 billion assist bundle. 

It has innovated in procuring weapons and ammunition for Ukraine however must do way more if the US Congress doesn’t comply with President Biden’s $60bn bundle. In brief, the EU should do what it takes to assist Ukraine triumph.

Second, Russia’s pretensions of being a frontrunner of the International South should be undermined by exposing its hypocrisy and lack of any normative legitimacy. 

In an under-reported session of the UN Safety Council on 12 March, the EU’s Excessive Consultant Josep Borrell gave a great account of what the EU was doing on the world stage.

Particularly fascinating was the contrasting speeches that adopted from the Russian and Chinese language ambassadors. The Russian rep indulged in an extended and violent diatribe in opposition to the EU, accusing it of appearing in an aggressive and expansionist method within the worst of colonial traditions. 

The Chinese language ambassador, for his half, welcomed the EU for its multilateralism and efforts in favour of peace. 

The Russian speech was ridiculous and exemplifies how Putin’s world standing can — and may — be degraded. Consequently, the EU ought to intensify its cooperation with the foremost democracies of the International South — Brazil, India and Indonesia.

We not have a selection

Third, at dwelling the EU has to consolidate its personal civilizational enchantment amongst its residents in an easy democratic method — the upcoming European elections will probably be a serious check for this. 

The concepts of the Russia-leaning extremist events have to be out-competed by these representing core European values. 

Lastly, the EU’s enlargement insurance policies must be improved, made credible and translated into actual advances for all events concerned.

Many heads must come collectively to grasp such a three-pronged technique. However with Putin’s election “victory”, there’s now no different selection. 

Appeasement is off the desk — Europe must unite and get critical in regards to the actually existential risk that Putin’s brutal regime poses. 

Michael Emerson is Affiliate Senior Analysis Fellow at CEPS, a Brussels-based impartial suppose tank. He additionally served because the European Union’s first Ambassador to the USSR after which Russia, from 1991 to 1995.

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